The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus will widen to about 6% of GDP in 2026. The bank also upgraded the country’s growth forecast to 4.4% in 2027. The revisions are tied to macroeconomic stability. The current account surplus reflects stronger export earnings and improved foreign exchange flows. The naira has stabilised. Reserves have risen. The bank’s assessment confirms the external accounts are improving.
Nigeria has run current account surpluses and deficits in cycles tied to oil prices. In 2016, an oil price crash pushed the account into deficit and triggered a recession. In 2020, the pandemic caused another deficit. The surplus returned in 2021 as oil prices recovered. In 2026, the composition of the surplus has shifted. Non-oil exports and diaspora remittances now do more work. Nigeria still depends on oil for the bulk of foreign exchange. But the non-oil share is rising.
The World Bank’s Africa Economic Update highlighted the trajectory. The current account surplus is projected to widen from 4.8% of GDP. The growth upgrade to 4.4% for 2027 reflects expectations of continued reform and stabilisation. The bank said macroeconomic stability is improving. Inflation is easing. The exchange rate has converged. Reserves have been rebuilt.
The surplus matters for Nigeria’s external position. It reduces pressure on the naira. It builds reserves. It also signals that the external sector is adjusting after the subsidy removal and currency float. The surplus does not mean the economy is healthy. Domestic inflation remains high. Unemployment persists. But the external accounts provide breathing room.
The bank’s forecast is a signal. It suggests the reforms are working. It also sets expectations. If the surplus falls short, confidence suffers. The 2027 election will test whether the government can sustain the trajectory.
Winners: The Federal Government, which gains credibility. The Central Bank of Nigeria, which gains reserves. Exporters, who earn foreign exchange. Investors, who gain confidence. Losers: Importers, who face higher costs if the naira appreciates. Consumers, who still face inflation. Nigerians without diaspora connections, who do not benefit directly from remittances. The government, if the surplus narrows.
Bottom Line: A 6% current account surplus is a strong number. Growth at 4.4% in 2027 is an upgrade. The external accounts are improving. The domestic economy remains strained. The surplus is a bridge. It must lead to real growth.