Who Let the Scammers In?

US troops leave. Dangote cuts fuel. 17m face hunger. IMF flags missing billions. Fake agency scandal deepens.

Good morning,

A woman in Borno walked for hours last week to find food for her children. She found none. The UN says over 17 million people across northern Nigeria are now facing crisis-level hunger, an increase of nearly 2 million from the previous forecast. The World Food Programme can only reach 740,000 of the 6.2 million food-insecure people in the north-east. That leaves 5.5 million people, mostly children, without life-saving support.

While families in the north-east search for food, the United States has withdrawn most of its 200 military personnel deployed for a joint counterterrorism operation in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin. The partnership had yielded significant results, including the killing of Abu-Bilal Al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIS. But the withdrawal raises an uncomfortable question: can the Nigerian military sustain the momentum without US personnel on the ground? The intelligence partnership continues, but it will be on US terms.

Speaking of losses, the IMF has revealed that Nigeria failed to record public spending equivalent to approximately 2% of its GDP. Christian Ebeke, the IMF’s resident representative in Nigeria, explained that certain capital expenditures were excluded from budget documents, making the fiscal deficit appear smaller than its true borrowing needs.

While the government struggles with fiscal transparency, Dangote Refinery has cut petrol prices by ₦200 per litre in one month, marking its fourth price cut since May. The latest ₦50 reduction brings the gantry price to ₦1,075. The refinery has also reduced diesel by ₦300 per litre and aviation fuel by ₦520.

And then there is the matter of who is running the systems. The Presidency has defended Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila over his alleged ties to a fictitious government agency. Police investigations found that Adeniyi Adeyemi forged presidential appointment letters, operated 34 bank accounts linked to fake government bodies and falsely claimed to head a non-existent council. How did a fake agency get into the budget? How did it open a CBN account? Who authorised the letters?

Meanwhile, the ICPC has obtained a court warrant to detain former Minister of Science and Technology, Uche Nnaji, for 14 days over a certificate forgery scandal. Investigations revealed that Nnaji forged his UNN degree and NYSC certificates, which he submitted during his ministerial confirmation in 2023.

I keep thinking about that woman in Borno, walking hours to find food. The US troops have left. The IMF says 2% of GDP is missing. A fake agency got into the budget. A former minister is in detention for forging his degree. These are not separate stories. They are the same story: a country where systems are either broken, bypassed or simply not working. The WFP needs $89 million. The question is whether Nigeria has the will to spend it on the right things.

Think about that as you start your day.

Warmly,
Lolade