President Bola Tinubu has rebounded. SBM Intelligence’s tracker poll puts his net favourability at -3.3 in September. It was -58.5 in May. That is a 55-point swing. The poll covered 1,103 voters across 12 states and Abuja. GDP grew 4.43% in the second quarter. Inflation eased. The naira strengthened. Voters credit leadership for short-term improvements faster than they revise their broader outlook. Still, 56.8% say Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction. That is down from 79.5% in May.
Nigerian presidents often see mid-term recoveries. In 2017, Buhari’s ratings rose after he returned from medical leave. In 2021, that goodwill collapsed after #EndSARS and the naira crisis. Polling rebounds are fragile.
Insecurity is the top concern. Kidnappings and killings continue. Vigilante groups fill the gaps. Seven in ten voters want policing devolved to states. Fuel is the second concern. Pump prices rose after the 2023 subsidy removal. Global pressures from the Middle East conflict worsened the strain. Two-thirds want some fuel support restored. A majority rates the government poorly on both security and fuel.
The national averages hide a deeper split. Tinubu holds net positive favourability in the Southwest (+49.8) and South-South (+45.9). He is strongly rejected in the Northcentral (-67) and Southeast (-75.7). A 39-point gap separates urban and rural voters. Urban voters give him -16.4 and prefer the NDC over the APC by 49.5% to 20.9%. Rural voters give him +22.5 and prefer the APC over the NDC by 35.2% to 27.6%.
The divide reflects information ecosystems. Over 61% of urban respondents get news from social media. They are more sceptical of INEC and harsher on government performance. Rural voters rely on radio. Only 29.6% use social media. They report higher satisfaction. But rural voters are more exposed to fuel inflation. 32.4% cite petrol as their primary worry, against 11.7% in urban centres.
Peter Obi remains the most favourably rated candidate. Tinubu is favoured for re-election because of incumbency and a fractured opposition. Atiku runs on the ADC ticket. Obi runs on the NDC ticket.
Winners: Tinubu, who gains ground. Rural voters, whose concerns shape strategy. Obi, who leads on favourability. Losers: Urban voters, who remain opposed. Atiku, who trails. INEC, which faces scepticism. The NDC, which must convert favourability into votes.
Bottom Line: Tinubu’s rebound is real but shallow. His path to 2027 runs through rural voters who feel fuel prices most. If he loses them, the swing reverses.