Former Kaduna Central Senator Shehu Sani has said Atiku Abubakar has the constitutional right to run in 2027. He spoke on Channels Television. He added a warning. An Atiku presidency would effectively dismantle the informal North-South power rotation arrangement.
Nigeria’s power rotation is informal but powerful. Since 1999, the presidency has alternated between the north and south. Olusegun Obasanjo, a southerner, served from 1999 to 2007. Umaru Yar’Adua, a northerner, served from 2007 to 2010. Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, completed Yar’Adua’s term and served until 2015. Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, served from 2015 to 2023. Bola Tinubu, a southerner, took office in 2023. The pattern is not law. It is convention. It holds the federation together. It also constrains ambition.
Atiku is from Adamawa, in the northeast. He is a northerner. He has run for president six times. He ran in 2019 and 2023. He lost both. He is running again in 2027. If he wins, the rotation breaks. Tinubu, a southerner, would have served only one term. Power would return to the north after four years. That is not the convention. The convention is two terms per region.
Sani’s point is not legal. It is political. Atiku can run. Nobody disputes that. But his victory would end the rotation. Southern elites would see it as a breach. Northern elites would be divided. Some support Atiku. Others want Tinubu to complete two terms. The division weakens the north.
Atiku’s argument is different. He says competence matters more than rotation. He says he is the best candidate. He says the rotation is not constitutional. That is true. But conventions matter. They manage diversity. They prevent domination. Breaking them has consequences.
The 2027 election will test the convention. If Tinubu wins, the rotation continues. If Atiku wins, it ends. The outcome will shape Nigerian politics for decades.
Winners: Atiku, who asserts his right. Northern elites who support him. The ADC, which gains a candidate. Losers: Southern elites, who see the rotation threatened. Tinubu, whose second term is contested. The convention, which is weakened. National unity, if the north-south divide deepens.
Bottom Line: Atiku can run. He has the right. His victory would break the rotation. Conventions are not law. They are glue. Breaking them has costs. The 2027 election will decide.