PMI shows rising demand, GDP forecast held at 4.1%

According to the July PMI, rising domestic demand supported a marked surge in new business orders across agric and manufacturing, with analysts retaining Nigeria’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.1%.

According to the July Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by Stanbic IBTC Bank, rising domestic demand supported a marked surge in new business orders across agriculture and manufacturing. Analysts retained Nigeria’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.1%, noting that purchase cost inflation eased to its lowest level in five months.

The PMI data suggests that Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of recovery. The increase in new business orders across agriculture and manufacturing reflects growing demand. The easing of purchase cost inflation is also a positive sign, as it suggests that input costs are stabilising.

However, the 4.1% GDP growth forecast, while positive, is modest. For a minimum-wage earner in Kano, this forecast means little if it does not translate into jobs and affordable food. The growth must be inclusive to make a real difference.

This echoes the 2019 PMI data, which also showed signs of economic recovery. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: a focus on economic growth.

The winners: the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, which are showing signs of recovery; and the Nigerian economy, which is growing. The losers: the Nigerian public, who have yet to feel the benefits; and the Nigerian government, which must ensure that the growth is inclusive.

Bottom Line: PMI data shows rising demand in agriculture and manufacturing. The GDP forecast is 4.1%. The question is whether the growth will be inclusive or just a statistic.