Taiwo Oyedele took the reform case to Chatham House this week. The chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee argued that three years of reforms have moved from announcement to evidence. That evidence, he said, will survive the 2027 election.
Nigeria’s reform record is littered with reversals. In 2012, protests forced a partial subsidy reversal. In 2016, the government promised to unify the exchange rate and created multiple windows instead. Oyedele knows the pattern. His speech used data to break it.
He put September inflation at 14.63%. It was roughly 21% a year earlier. Core inflation stood at 12.95%. Month-on-month prices rose 0.06%. Reserves reached $55 billion on 9 October, an 18-year high. Real growth is 4.3% this year and is projected at 4.4% over the next two. He also cited 17% growth in the first half of 2026. That figure reads as nominal rather than real output.
His case for durability rested on three mechanisms. The petrol subsidy is gone and has stayed gone. It saved ₦15.8 trillion by the end of 2025. The exchange rate is unified. Fiscal publication follows process, not pressure. Asked whether discipline survives an election, he said the costs are now visible to voters. Reversing the reforms would be immediately legible.
Food inflation at 19.6% remains too high. Headline disinflation is outpacing the price of tomatoes, garlic and beans. That gap widens inequality. His explanation was supply-side. Post-harvest losses reach 60% of tomato output. Insecurity, storage and rural roads matter. The response is irrigation, technology, credit and cash transfers reaching about 10 million households.
SBM’s tracking this quarter found the sharpest fall in the jollof basket in Lagos and Ibadan. Nine of thirteen markets fell by less than 10%. The South-South barely moved. Port Harcourt rose because the city flooded.
Winners: The Federal Government, which gains a platform. Investors, who gain clarity. Households reached by cash transfers. Losers: Households facing food inflation at 19.6%. Markets outside Lagos and Ibadan. Farmers in insecure communities. The government, if the election reverses the reforms.
Bottom Line: Oyedele made the case with numbers. Headline inflation is falling. Food inflation is not. The 2027 election will decide whether reform survives the ballot.