Opposition stakeholders have fixed 24 September for a consensus conference. The meeting will bring together key political leaders. Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are expected to attend. The agenda is unified platform strategies ahead of upcoming electoral cycles.
Nigeria’s opposition has fragmented repeatedly. In 2013, four parties merged to form the APC and defeated an incumbent president. In 2019, the PDP and dozens of parties signed a unity pact that collapsed before the election. In 2023, the PDP, Labour Party and NNPP ran separate campaigns. That split handed the APC a plurality victory. The pattern is consistent. Opposition leaders agree on the need for unity and disagree on who should lead.
The 24 September conference is a strategic session. The three leaders have different bases. Atiku controls the ADC and a northern network. Obi controls the NDC’s southeastern and urban support. Kwankwaso controls the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano and the northwest. Together they would pose a serious challenge. Separately, they split the anti-incumbency vote.
The obstacles are personal and structural. All three have presidential ambitions. None has shown willingness to step aside. Their parties are separate legal entities with separate structures. Merging them requires agreements on candidate selection, funding and power sharing. Those negotiations take time. The 2027 election is approaching.
The conference may produce a communique. It may produce a framework. It is unlikely to produce a single candidate. That decision comes later, if at all.
Winners: The opposition, if it gains coordination. Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso, who gain visibility. Political analysts, who gain a story. The APC, if the talks fail and expose divisions. Losers: The APC, if the opposition unites. Smaller parties, which face absorption. Voters, if the talks produce another failed pact. The leaders, if they cannot agree.
Bottom Line: Three leaders, one table, no clear leader. Unity wins elections. Egos lose them. The 24 September meeting is a start. The finish line is far away.