The Federal Government has unveiled fresh plans to unlock Nigeria’s more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves for industrial development, as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said the country could raise crude oil production to three million barrels per day. The developments were disclosed at the fifth edition of the PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit in Abuja, where government officials, regulators, industry operators and labour leaders outlined measures to reposition the oil and gas sector for sustainable growth.
The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, said Nigeria must move beyond crude oil extraction and maximise its vast gas resources as a source of energy, industrial feedstock and economic growth. He said the country’s more than 215 tcf of proven gas reserves offered an opportunity to diversify the economy and accelerate industrialisation. “Gas can provide the reliable energy for manufacturers. It can support fertilizer and petrochemical industries. It can provide feedstock for industrial development and create opportunities for investment across the value chain,” he said.
The Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Meyiwa Eyisan, expressed confidence that Nigeria could achieve crude oil production of three million barrels per day through increased investment, improved regulation and stronger collaboration among stakeholders. “Together, three million barrels will be achieved,” she said. She said the Petroleum Industry Act had established the regulatory framework required for upstream development, while the Commission was reviewing regulations that had constrained investment and production.
Eyisan also disclosed that the Federal Government was targeting between $30 billion and $50 billion in new investment in the oil and gas sector, particularly in deepwater operations. She said the investment drive was necessary to reverse the decline in capital inflows into the industry, recalling that investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector stood at about $26 billion in 2014 but declined sharply to about $2 billion between 2020 and 2023.
The targets are ambitious. Three million barrels per day would be a significant increase from current production levels. The $50 billion investment target is also substantial. The success of the plans will depend on the government’s ability to attract investment and address the challenges facing the sector, including ageing infrastructure and regulatory constraints. The focus on gas is a recognition that Nigeria must diversify its energy mix and industrialise.
This echoes the 2010s oil sector targets, which also sought to increase production and attract investment. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: ambitious targets that were not met.
The winners: the Nigerian oil and gas sector, if the targets are achieved; and the Nigerian economy, which would benefit from increased production and investment. The losers: the Nigerian government, if the targets are not met; and the Nigerian public, who must wait for the benefits.
Bottom Line: Nigeria is aiming for 3 million barrels per day and $50 billion in investment. The targets are bold. The question is whether the government can deliver or the targets will remain aspirational.