Nigeria’s private-sector activity hit a four-year high in September. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.4 from 54.3 in August. That is the second consecutive monthly increase. It is the strongest improvement in business conditions since February 2022. Nigeria has overtaken Uganda to reclaim the top PMI spot among eight major African economies.
The PMI measures business activity, new orders, employment, inventories and supplier deliveries. A reading above 50 signals expansion. Nigeria’s PMI had slumped below 50 for much of 2023 and 2024. High inflation, currency volatility and fuel costs suppressed demand. The index began recovering in early 2026. It crossed 50 in March. It has risen steadily since. Nigeria last held the top position in Africa in October 2025.
New orders rose for the eighth consecutive month. The pace was the fastest since February 2022. Firms cited improving customer demand and new product launches. Output growth accelerated to its strongest level since February 2022. All four monitored sectors recorded expansions. Purchasing activity rose sharply as firms sought to meet rising workloads. Inventory accumulation was the strongest since late 2021.
Employment increased for the sixteenth consecutive month. Job creation remained modest. Many hires were temporary. Firms hired to complete specific projects. Backlogs decreased for the second month running. Capacity expansion helped firms keep on top of workloads.
Input cost inflation reached a three-month high. Fuel costs drove the increase. Animal feed, foodstuffs and other raw materials also rose. Staff cost inflation quickened. Companies passed higher costs to customers. Selling prices rose at the fastest rate since June.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, said: “Overall business conditions improved significantly in September, with the headline PMI rising to a level not seen since February 2022, thereby ensuring a better third quarter for business activities relative to the second quarter of the year.”
Firms were more optimistic about the 12-month outlook. They cited expansion plans, new branches, export intentions and new customers.
Winners: Private-sector firms, which gain from stronger demand. Manufacturers and service providers, which recorded expansions. Workers, who gain employment, albeit temporarily. The Federal Government, which gains evidence of recovery. Investors, who gain confidence. Losers: Consumers, who face higher prices. Firms unable to pass on costs. Sectors outside the four monitored categories. The poor, for whom growth has not yet translated into lower food and transport costs. Critics who dismissed the reforms.
Bottom Line: The PMI at 56.4 is a strong number. It signals real recovery. Demand is rising. Firms are hiring. But inflation remains a threat. The gains are fragile. The CBN’s rate cut must transmit to lending. The government must sustain the reforms. One month of growth is not a trend. Nigeria needs many more.