The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has warned in its H2 2026 economic outlook that intensifying pre-election activity poses a serious threat to the macroeconomic stability the government has worked to restore. NESG projected full-year GDP growth of approximately 4.2 percent for 2026, driven by improved performance across oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors. However, it flagged escalating election-related spending as the principal downside risk, warning it could trigger higher inflation, undermine investor confidence and stall structural reforms.
The think tank also cited total public debt, which rose to a record ₦159.4 trillion in Q1 2026, as a concern, noting that headline inflation averaged 15.5 percent in H1 2026, driven by fuel costs, food prices and elevated transport costs. NESG chair Olaniyi Yusuf said Nigeria must move beyond stabilisation toward broad-based industrial growth and decisive manufacturing-led transformation.
The NESG’s warning is a sobering reality check. The government has worked hard to stabilise the economy, but the political cycle could undo the gains. The warning about election-related spending is particularly significant, as it suggests that the government may be tempted to loosen fiscal discipline to win votes. The rising debt and inflation figures are a reminder that the economy remains fragile. For a minimum-wage earner in Kano, the NESG’s warning may feel abstract, but the consequences of a pre-election spending spree will be very real.
This echoes the 2019 pre-election spending warnings, which also flagged the risk of fiscal indiscipline. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: a warning that the political cycle could undermine economic stability.
The winners: the Nigerian government, if it resists the temptation to overspend; and the Nigerian economy, if the warnings are heeded. The losers: the Nigerian public, who will bear the cost of fiscal indiscipline; and the government, if it fails to heed the warning.
Bottom Line: The NESG has warned that pre-election spending could derail the economy. The risk is real. The question is whether the government will listen or repeat the mistakes of the past.