Governor Seyi Makinde said the Federal Government is holding back an NLNG dividend of ₦250 billion due to each state until after the 2027 elections. He spoke on Friday at a budget consultation at the University of Ibadan. Makinde is the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement. Presidential adviser Bayo Onanuga called the claim false in a statement on Sunday.
The Nigeria LNG dividend is a long-standing fiscal dispute. States have argued that NLNG revenue should flow through the Federation Account. The company pays dividends to the federation based on its shareholding. NNPC holds the federal stake. In 2023, the subsidy removal changed the fiscal arithmetic. States began pressing harder for NLNG proceeds. The 2027 election has made the argument political.
Onanuga tested the arithmetic. He said ₦250 billion for each of the 36 states would total ₦9 trillion. He said states receive 26.72% of distributable revenue under the Federation Account Allocation Committee formula. On that basis, he said NLNG dividends would have to exceed ₦33.68 trillion, about $25 billion, in one declaration.
He said NLNG has paid the Federation about $21.5 billion in dividends over 25 years. Less than $3 billion of that came since President Bola Tinubu took office. He said no such withholding exists.
Makinde has not responded to the rebuttal. His campaign has not issued a statement. The APM candidate made the claim at a budget event in his state. The setting matters. Budget consultations are local events. The claim travelled nationally within days.
The dispute is political and technical. Politically, an opposition candidate accusing the federal government of withholding state funds fits the campaign narrative. Technically, the figures do not support it. ₦33.68 trillion is larger than Nigeria’s entire annual federation account. No dividend declaration of that size has occurred.
Winners: Onanuga, who demonstrates command of the numbers. The Federal Government, which rebuts the claim. Makinde, who gains attention for his campaign. Losers: Makinde, whose arithmetic is challenged. The APM, whose credibility suffers. Voters, who face another contested claim. The fiscal debate, which becomes political noise. States that genuinely have revenue grievances, whose case is weakened by exaggeration.
Bottom Line: ₦250 billion per state is ₦9 trillion. To fund that from NLNG dividends alone, the company would need to declare $25 billion at once. It has paid $21.5 billion in 25 years. The claim does not survive arithmetic. Makinde should produce his evidence. Onanuga should publish the full accounts. Voters deserve numbers, not slogans.