The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has set 19 September for legislative by-elections. Five parliamentary seats are vacant. They are spread across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi and Delta states. The vacancies follow deaths, resignations and defections.
By-elections are a recurring feature of Nigeria’s political calendar. They are low turnout, high stakes contests. In 2023 alone, INEC conducted multiple by-elections to fill seats vacated by death or defection. The 2020 Bayelsa and Kogi governorship elections showed how by-elections can become national proxy fights. The pattern is consistent: local vacancies attract national attention and money.
The five seats matter for different reasons. Gombe and Bauchi are in the northeast, where the APC and PDP compete fiercely. Kano is a political heavyweight state with a large voting population. Delta is in the south-south, where the PDP and Labour Party have traded control. Each vacancy is a test of party machinery and local alliances.
The causes of the vacancies are instructive. Deaths remove incumbents without warning. Resignations often follow defections or appointments. Defections themselves are a symptom of Nigeria’s weak party discipline. Politicians move between parties based on access to power, not ideology. Each defection triggers a by-election that costs taxpayers money.
INEC will manage logistics, security and result transmission. The commission has faced criticism over past by-elections, including violence and logistical failures. The September date gives it time to prepare. Whether that is enough depends on the security situation in each constituency.
Winners: INEC, if it conducts credible polls. Parties that mobilise effectively. Candidates who win. Local economies that get campaign spending. Losers: Taxpayers, who fund the exercise. Voters in the affected constituencies, who face another election. Parties that lose. The political system, which treats defection as routine.
Bottom Line: Five by-elections, four states, one September date. The cost is borne by everyone.