The International Monetary Fund has warned that artificial intelligence could disrupt 40% of jobs globally. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva disclosed the figure at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF in Bangkok. She described AI as “a slow-moving tsunami, but it is still a tsunami.” The technology will augment, downgrade or eliminate roles over time.
AI adoption has accelerated since 2023. Generative models like ChatGPT and Claude are used in offices, factories and services. The technology promises productivity gains. It also threatens jobs. In 2024, the IMF estimated that 60% of jobs in advanced economies could be affected. The figure for low-income countries was lower. The current warning updates those estimates. It comes as AI investment drives global growth. The United States, China and India lead production. Other economies participate in supply chains.
Georgieva said around 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 23% in low-income countries will be affected by AI over time. Globally, about 40% of jobs are expected to be augmented, downgraded or eliminated. The lower share in low-income countries does not mean they are better positioned. It means AI has yet to spread there. IMF research on the US labour market shows 10% of jobs already require higher AI-related skills. These positions pay more. Routine and repetitive jobs are declining. Lower-paid positions in construction, data centres and services are increasing. The net effect in the segment examined is positive. But gains are concentrated in lower-paid jobs.
Georgieva highlighted the impact on young people. They typically begin careers with routine tasks before progressing. A decline in entry-level roles makes that path harder. She identified three tasks for governments. They must monitor labour market changes. They must rethink education and promote lifelong learning. They must assess implications for public finances. Governments derive revenue from taxing labour. If AI shifts income from labour to capital, countries must find new revenue sources.
The first wave of AI effects comes from demand and investment. This supports growth in a few economies. The global economy continues to grow at around 3%. The next wave will come from wider adoption. Georgieva estimates this could boost advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Developing Asian economies could gain 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points. Developing economies need electricity, digital infrastructure, skills and safeguards to benefit.
Winners: AI producers and investors, who gain profits. Skilled workers, who command higher wages. Advanced economies, which gain growth. Construction and data centre workers, who gain jobs. Losers: Routine workers, whose jobs are automated. Young people, who lose entry-level roles. Low-income countries, which lack infrastructure. Governments, which lose labour tax revenue. Workers without digital skills, who are excluded.
Bottom Line: Forty per cent of jobs face disruption. The IMF calls it a tsunami. It is slow but powerful. Governments must act. Education must change. Tax systems must adapt. Workers must retrain. The alternative is a labour market that leaves millions behind.