The International Monetary Fund has concluded its 2026 Article IV consultation with Nigeria. The Executive Board endorsed the assessment on 1 June 2026. The Fund said strong reforms over the past three years have improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience. It also said conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult.
Nigeria launched major reforms in 2023. The petrol subsidy was removed. The naira was floated. Monetary policy was tightened. The IMF has supported the direction. It has also warned about the social cost. The Article IV consultation is the Fund’s annual health check. It assesses policies, risks and the outlook. The 2025 consultation was concluded in June 2025. The current one follows a year of stabilisation and continued hardship.
The Fund reported that poverty reached 63% on the national poverty line. It estimated that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in the fall of 2025. It projected growth of 4.1% in 2026. It noted that inflation nudged up to 15.4% in March 2026 as global fuel and food prices rose. It expected disinflation to resume in the second half of the year.
Reserves improved to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion in 2024. Net reserves rose to $35 billion from $23 billion. The consolidated government deficit widened to 4.4% of GDP. Oil revenues fell short. Capital expenditure was under-executed.
The Executive Directors commended the reforms. They cautioned that poverty and food insecurity could worsen in the current external environment. They called for a neutral fiscal stance in 2026. They welcomed tax reforms but said additional measures may be needed to fund a scaled-up cash transfer programme. They flagged concerns about off-budget spending and complex financing instruments. They urged stronger budget processes, fiscal reporting and transparency. They supported the Central Bank’s tight monetary stance until disinflation is entrenched.
Winners: The Federal Government, which gains validation. The Central Bank, which gains support for its policy. Investors, who gain confidence from the assessment. The IMF, which shapes the policy debate. Losers: The 63% living in poverty. The 27 million facing food insecurity. Nigerians who see macroeconomic stability but not household relief. The government, if it cannot fund social transfers. Critics who say the reforms have not delivered for the poor.
Bottom Line: The IMF says the reforms are working. It also says the poor are suffering. Both are true. Macroeconomic stability is necessary. It is not sufficient. The government must scale up cash transfers, improve budget transparency and protect the vulnerable. Growth without inclusion is fragile. The Fund knows it. The government must act on it.