Ghana’s reference rate edges up to 10.61% in August
Ghana’s Reference Rate, the benchmark used by commercial banks to price loans, is expected to rise slightly to 10.61% in August from 10.59% in July, driven by a rise in the 91-day Treasury bill rate.
Ghana’s Reference Rate (GRR), the benchmark used by commercial banks to price loans, is expected to rise slightly to 10.61% in August 2026 from 10.59% in July, according to JOYBUSINESS calculations. The 0.02 percentage point increase is mainly driven by a rise in the 91-day Treasury bill rate to 5.78% from 5.73%, while the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Rate and interbank rate remained unchanged.
The adjustment is expected to marginally increase borrowing costs for customers with variable-rate loans, although fixed-rate borrowers will not be affected. Despite the higher benchmark, lending rates across Ghana’s banking sector continue to decline, with average rates around 16% and some borrowers accessing loans at between 11% and 12.5%. The GRR has recorded mixed movements this year, falling sharply between March and June before rising in July and August, reflecting changing market conditions and funding costs.
The Nigerian stake is clear. Ghana’s monetary policy decisions are closely watched in Nigeria, as both countries face similar challenges in managing inflation and growth. The slight increase in the GRR suggests that Ghana’s central bank is taking a cautious approach to monetary policy.
From a Nigerian vantage point, Ghana’s experience is a reminder that monetary policy decisions have real-world consequences. Nigerian borrowers are also facing higher borrowing costs, and the CBN’s decisions will determine the direction of interest rates.
This echoes the 2022 monetary policy debates in Ghana, which also saw the central bank balancing inflation and growth. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: a focus on monetary policy transmission.
The winners: savers, who may benefit from higher deposit rates; and the Bank of Ghana, which is managing inflation. The losers: borrowers with variable-rate loans, who face higher costs; and the Ghanaian economy, which faces higher borrowing costs.
Bottom Line: Ghana’s reference rate is up slightly. Borrowing costs will rise marginally. The question is whether the increase will be enough to control inflation.