The Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, said on 6 November that the first affected generating units should return within 48 to 72 hours. Outages have hit four states, including Lagos and the Federal Capital Territory. He did not name the other two. Tegbe blamed planned maintenance at Egbin Power Station, gas shortfalls at some thermal plants and sabotage of transmission lines. He said the damaged lines limited alternative supply routes, especially in Lagos. Grid operators have shed load in some areas.
The grid has collapsed repeatedly. It failed entirely on 23 January 2026. It partially collapsed on 22 August, dropping to 1,132 megawatts from over 4,000 earlier that day. Installed capacity is about 13,625 megawatts. Average available generation has hovered around 4,286 megawatts. Gas constraints and seasonal water levels are recurring causes. The system is fragile because generation, transmission and distribution are all underinvested.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator said limited gas constrained some thermal plants. Lower water inflows cut output at hydroelectric stations. NISO data showed the 11 distribution companies received a combined 2,926 megawatts at 4:41 pm on Thursday. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited disputed the gas claim. Spokesperson Andy Odeh said its gas transport network runs without constraints. NNPCL said gas production rose about 10 per cent this year, but gave no volumes. It called for a joint review by suppliers, transporters, generators and NISO.
The outcome of that review is not yet reported. The public is left with two official explanations. Both may be partly true. The difference matters because it determines who is blamed and who must act.
Winners: Generator sellers and fuel suppliers. Solar installers. DisCos that allocate scarce power to high-revenue customers. Losers: Households, who face blackouts. Manufacturers, whose costs rise. Hospitals, which cannot rely on the grid. Students, who lose study hours. The government, which faces another accountability gap.
Bottom Line: Gas is short or it is not. The grid is weak regardless. The minister promised a fix in 72 hours. The public will measure him by the lights.