Fitch projects Ghana’s inflation to rise to 9% by year-end
Fitch Solutions has projected Ghana’s inflation to rise to 9% by the end of 2026, driven by a weakening cedi, higher food prices and imported inflation.
Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghana’s inflation will rise to 9% by the end of 2026, citing an expected weakening of the Ghana cedi after months of currency-driven price stability. Speaking during PwC Ghana’s webinar on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, Fitch Solutions Associate Director Mike Kruiniger said the Bank of Ghana’s policy stance suggests the cedi is unlikely to remain as strong in the coming months.
The forecast is higher than the government’s projection of 5% inflation by year-end, with Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson maintaining that target despite geopolitical tensions. Fitch also expects inflation to climb further to 13.2% by the end of 2027, driven by stronger domestic demand, imported inflation and higher food prices linked to El Niño. Despite the inflation outlook, the firm forecasts Ghana’s economy will grow by 5.7% in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, mining activity and elevated gold prices.
The Nigerian stake is clear. Ghana’s inflation trajectory is closely watched in Nigeria, as both countries face similar challenges. Ghana’s success in reducing inflation to 5.3% in June was a positive sign, but the Fitch projection suggests that the trend may be reversing. Nigeria’s own inflation rate, which eased to 15.91% in June, is also at risk of rising due to similar pressures.
From a Nigerian vantage point, the Fitch projection is a warning. The factors driving inflation in Ghana, including currency weakness and food price pressures, are also present in Nigeria. The Nigerian government must take steps to address these challenges before inflation begins to rise again.
This echoes the 2022 inflation surge in Ghana, which also prompted IMF intervention. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: a central bank struggling to manage inflation.
The winners: the Ghanaian government, which is working to stabilise the economy; and the IMF, which supports Ghana’s reforms. The losers: Ghanaian consumers, who face higher prices; and the Nigerian economy, which faces similar pressures.
Bottom Line: Fitch projects Ghana’s inflation will rise to 9% by year-end. The cedi is weakening. Nigeria should be watching closely.