Nigeria risks losing more than $1 billion in annual export earnings. The Nigerian Export Promotion Council issued the warning. The risk stems from the European Union Deforestation Regulation. Exporters must comply or lose access to the European market.
The EU introduced the Deforestation Regulation to address climate change. It requires commodities shipped to the EU to be deforestation-free and legally produced. Affected commodities include cocoa, rubber, wood, oil palm, soya, coffee and cattle. Large operators must comply from 30 December 2026. Small and medium operators have until 30 June 2027. Nigeria’s cocoa exports to the EU were valued at 1.49 billion euros in 2024. That is 89% of Nigeria’s cocoa exports.
Benedict Hegbe, Regional Coordinator of NEPC, spoke at a seminar in Lagos on Tuesday. He identified cocoa as Nigeria’s most exposed export commodity. He expressed concern over gaps in farm mapping. Only about half of Nigeria’s 350,000 smallholder cocoa plots have been geolocated. The regulation requires traceability to the land where commodities were produced. Geoloation and documentation are essential for continued market access. Rubber and wood exports also face risk.
Hegbe urged farmers, cooperatives and exporters to strengthen traceability systems. He said stakeholders should prepare early. Assistant Comptroller Oyama Ekok-Oyama of the Nigeria Customs Service said the EU regulation aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He said compliance extends beyond forest protection to include labour rights and proper documentation. He disclosed that the export module of the National Single Window would go live in November.
Winners: Compliant exporters, who gain market access. Traceability service providers, who gain contracts. The NEPC, which shows vigilance. Customs, which gains a role. Losers: Non-compliant exporters, who lose market access. Smallholder farmers without geolocation, who face exclusion. Nigeria’s export earnings, if compliance lags. The economy, if cocoa exports fall.
Bottom Line: EU rules take effect in December. Nigeria is unprepared. Half of cocoa farms are not mapped. Exporters risk losing $1 billion annually. Compliance requires traceability. Time is short. The government must act.