Ethiopia has ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea. It expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties with Addis Ababa. The escalation follows renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia.
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. They remained in a state of no-war, no-peace for two decades. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki signed a peace agreement. Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize for it. The rapprochement did not last. Tensions grew over the Tigray war. Eritrea backed Ethiopian federal forces. It also had its own grievances. In 2026, the relationship collapsed.
Ethiopia accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). All three countries deny the allegations. Eritrea said it had no option but to reciprocate Ethiopia’s diplomatic measures.
The escalation followed overnight explosions in Addis Ababa. An opposition-linked source claimed responsibility for drone strikes targeting military facilities. The claims could not be independently verified. The African Union urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise restraint and resolve differences through diplomatic channels.
The renewed fighting is the most serious escalation since the 2020-2022 civil war. That war killed an estimated 600,000 people. The current clashes involve Tigrayan forces and the federal military. They have spread to Amhara and Afar. Ethiopia’s neighbours are drawn in. Egypt is a long-standing rival over the Nile dam. Sudan hosts Ethiopian refugees. The region is fragile.
The diplomatic break removes a channel for de-escalation. Embassies closed. Diplomats expelled. Communication severed. When states stop talking, they start shooting. The AU’s call for restraint is necessary. It is also insufficient. The parties are not listening.
Winners: Hardliners on both sides, who gain ground. The TPLF, if Ethiopia is distracted. Egypt, if Ethiopia is weakened. Losers: Ethiopian and Eritrean civilians. Refugees. Regional stability. The 2018 peace agreement, which collapses. The African Union, whose mediation fails. The Horn of Africa, which faces another war.
Bottom Line: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed ties. The 2018 peace deal is dead. Fighting continues in the north. The AU calls for restraint. Nobody is listening. The Horn of Africa cannot afford another war.