Ekpa's jailing coincides with drop in South-east attacks
Attacks in Nigeria's South-east dropped after Simon Ekpa's jailing, but underlying grievances remain unresolved and could resurface.
Attacks and killings linked to IPOB and other pro-Biafra groups declined significantly in 2025, about one year after Simon Ekpa was jailed in Finland.
Premium Times compared attacks reported in the media in 2024 before Ekpa’s arrest and in 2025 after his arrest and subsequent imprisonment. The findings suggest that Ekpa may have contributed to the violence in the South-east.
Ekpa, who founded a faction of IPOB called Auto Pilot, was sentenced in September 2025 to six years’ imprisonment by a Finnish court. The court found him guilty of participating in a terrorist organisation and publicly inciting crimes for terrorist purposes in Nigeria’s South-east. It also ruled that Ekpa had supplied terror groups with weapons, explosives and ammunition through his network of contacts in the region, and that he encouraged his followers on X to commit crimes in Nigeria.
He committed these offences from Lahti, a city in Finland. He was arrested on 21 November 2024 alongside four others.
Hours after Ekpa’s arrest, the main IPOB faction loyal to Nnamdi Kanu disowned him, explaining that Ekpa was never a member of the group. Prior to his arrest, Ekpa repeatedly claimed responsibility for attacks, including the killing of four police officers.
IPOB was founded by Kanu in 2012 and leads the agitation for an independent state of Biafra from the South-east and parts of the South-south. The group has been linked to deadly attacks in both regions, though it has repeatedly denied involvement.
The decline in attacks since Ekpa’s imprisonment is notable. It suggests that one man, operating from a Finnish city, was able to direct or inspire violence in Nigeria’s South-east. Remove him, and the violence drops.
But the decline is not a solution. The underlying grievances, including marginalisation, poverty and perceived injustice, remain. Ekpa was a symptom, not the disease. The question is whether the Nigerian state will address the root causes or simply wait for the next Ekpa to emerge.
Bottom Line: Simon Ekpa is in a Finnish prison. The South-east is quieter. That is not victory; it is a pause.