The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reported a drop in domestic petrol supply from 32.5 million litres daily in June to 25.8 million litres in July. Imported petrol volumes rose to 19.7 million litres daily to cover the shortfall. Domestic PMS receipts fell by 21% in July, while imports increased by 9%.
The decline in domestic supply is a reversal of the progress made earlier in the year. The Dangote Refinery had been supplying a significant portion of the country’s petrol needs, but its output fell in July. The increase in imports is a reminder that Nigeria is still vulnerable to supply disruptions. The government must address the factors behind the decline in domestic production to ensure that the country does not slip back into dependence on imports.
This echoes the 2022 fuel import crisis, which exposed Nigeria’s vulnerability to global crude price volatility. The mechanism then was different, but the result was the same: a country struggling to secure fuel for its citizens.
The winners: importers, who are filling the supply gap; and the Nigerian government, which collects taxes on imports. The losers: Nigerian consumers, who may face higher petrol prices; and the Nigerian economy, which suffers from increased import dependence.
Bottom Line: Domestic petrol supply is down 20.6%. Imports are filling the gap. The question is whether the decline is temporary or a sign of deeper problems.