A Teenager, a Crisis, and a Country in Debt

Wimbledon history, $11.4bn loans, ₦80tn refinery, 50 dead in herder-farmer conflict — Nigeria's week in review.

Good morning,

A 17-year-old from Abuja’s Aurum Tennis Academy walked onto the grass at Wimbledon this week and did something no Nigerian has done in 35 years. Oluwaseun “The Shark” Ogunsakin qualified for the junior singles main draw, the first Nigerian since 1990 to compete in the singles event. He beat a British wildcard and then dismantled Canada’s top-ranked junior 6-3, 6-1. When the draw was published, the Nigerian flag was missing beside his name. Tournament officials are fixing it. That small omission tells you everything about how far Nigerian tennis has fallen.

While a teenager makes history in London, a different kind of history is being written in Abuja. President Tinubu’s administration has secured $11.4 billion in World Bank loan approvals in three years, bringing the total to nearly $14.59 billion approved during Buhari’s eight-year tenure. The problem is not the borrowing. It is the spending. Only $2.32 billion, about 20 percent, has been disbursed so far. Nigeria is borrowing faster than it can spend the money. With debt servicing already consuming about 90 percent of government revenue, the new borrowing adds to an unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The winners: the government, which has access to cheap financing. The losers: future generations, who will inherit the debt.

Speaking of money, Dangote Refinery is attracting strong investor interest ahead of its planned September IPO, with demand nearing ₦3.24 trillion for a proposed 10 percent equity sale. The refinery is valued at up to ₦80 trillion. If successful, it could become the largest stock market offering ever undertaken by an African company. The refinery has also cut petrol prices by ₦200 per litre over the past month, bringing the gantry price to ₦1,075. The winners: consumers who pay less for fuel. The losers: independent marketers who cannot compete on price.

And then there is the violence that will not stop. A curfew has been imposed in Rafi LGA, Niger State, after fighting between farmers and herders escalated, leaving about 50 dead. Machete-wielding herders invaded a Kamuku community, killing dozens of residents, predominantly women, children and the elderly. A mob attempted to invade the Kagara General Hospital to attack herders receiving treatment, but was averted only by military intervention. Homes and food storage silos were razed. The winners: none. The losers: the families of the 50 dead, the thousands displaced, and the Nigerian state, which has failed to protect its citizens in yet another local government area.

I keep thinking about that 17-year-old at Wimbledon, the missing flag beside his name. The government is borrowing $11.4 billion. Dangote is worth ₦80 trillion. Fifty people are dead in Niger State. These are not separate stories. They are the same story: a country where systems are broken, where talent is neglected, where violence goes unchecked, and where borrowing is easier than building. The Shark made it to Wimbledon. The question is whether Nigeria will build on that moment or let it slip away, just like everything else.

Think about that as you start your day.

Warmly,
Lolade